With connectivity becoming ever more widespread, and content increasingly digital, it should be possible to access and consume services and content almost anywhere, whether we are stationary or mobile.

The years from now to 2010 will likely witness a quiet revolution. New users, new uses and more frequent use of TMT innovations are likely to see the combined TMT sector grow in breadth and depth.

Here are some of the developments we foresee:
 

Virtual Work Teams

Advances in broadband penetration, network security, IP communications and other tools will likely allow a greater proportion of workers to choose to work from home for at least some of the working week. By 2008, 41 million corporate employees globally may spend at least one day a week teleworking, and 100 million will work from home at least one day a month.

Better technology and connectivity may also allow employers to make more use of contract workers. Companies should find it easier to engage securely, on an as-needed basis, self-employed workers located anywhere in the world.

100 million employees will telecommute at least one day a month.

By 2010, offshoring – another key manifestation of the disaggregation of the office team – may well have evolved into a common practice across all industry sectors, bringing together teams across continents and time-zones.

Offshoring is widely used among financial services companies as a means of reducing overall cost. But by 2010 employers are also likely to use offshoring to gain access to the most qualified, talented workers – wherever they are on the planet – and may use IP communications, online collaboration suites and other tools to stitch teams together.

Management of remote teams may be distinct from supervising staff face to face. Communication skills need to be developed so that there is a healthy flow of communication with staff in all locations. While e-mail may be a tempting, quick approach to communicating with a widely dispersed team, unfortunately it may not be efficacious in the long term, as key messages may be lost among the hundreds of e-mails received.

Search Isn't Text-Based Anymore

As the proportion of information created in digital format grows, encouraged by the steadily falling price of digital storage, the ability to search rapidly and efficiently across a range of file types is likely to become a fundamental challenge.

Employees will search through phone calls and video logs as well as text.

Today the majority of text-based information is already created in a digital format. By 2010, audio and video will likely increasingly be created and stored entirely digitally, with perhaps the biggest impact coming from growing recording of VoIP phone calls. Companies may decide to record a growing volume of calls, partly because it is relatively easy and cheap to do, but also partly for legislative and governance reasons.

By the end of the decade, workers may search through stored phone conversations, video discussions and images, as well as text-based information.

Connected: Half of Earth’s Population

By the end of the decade, it is likely that for the first time ever, half of the world’s population will have access to telecommunications services, most commonly via mobile communications. Citizens in developing countries are likely to represent the bulk of the hundreds of millions of those entering the global telecommunications network for the first time. While most new connections will likely be to mobile networks, citizens in developing countries are also likely to contract to fixed-line networks.

VoIP may represent 10 percent of total voice volume.

VoIP will likely gain in adoption, but its revenue impact may still be muted as of 2010. By that time, VoIP is forecast to represent approaching 10 percent of total voice volume, but less than 5 percent of global voice revenues. Many corporations may have adopted VoIP; consumers might increasingly subscribe – sometimes without even realizing – to VoIP solutions. But if VoIP continues to be promoted as a low-cost option, there is a danger that few of its advanced features and benefits (such as unified messaging or high-fidelity calls) will be actively promoted.

Both fixed and wireless operators are likely to deploy next-generation network technologies over the course of the next five years. Fixed operators will likely move to enhanced asymmetric digital subscriber lines (ADSL2(+)) and, to a lesser degree, fiber to the home (FTTH). Mobile operators are expected to continue building out their 3G networks, and will likely add high-speed downlink packet access (HSDPA), as well as high-speed uplink packet access (HSUPA) upgrades to give customers multi-megabit connectivity.

But revenues and margins may not grow in line with increases in bandwidth. Fixed operators are likely to continue to suffer from the commoditization of broadband connectivity, while mobile operators may continue to struggle to launch profitable mobile data services. Only a small number of people may find the highest bandwidth speeds available of practical use and more importantly, worth paying for.
 

Wireless LAN Thrives Privately, Struggles Publicly

Broadband wireless is likely to have greatest success as an extension to fixed broadband connection, rather than as a wireless local loop. Homes and offices will likely continue to increase their adoption of Wi-Fi connectivity, as prices fall, security improves, installation becomes easier and reliability becomes progressively better. The growing incorporation of Wi-Fi within a range of devices – from laptops to gaming consoles, mobile phones to PDAs – should also strengthen the personal or business case for deployment of Wi-Fi.

WiMAX is likely to be an ineffective competitor, except in rural areas.

Municipal Wi-Fi networks may also become widespread, particularly in the developed world, as local authorities and governments strive to bridge the digital divide. But these schemes’ potential may be blunted not only by targeted users’ inability to afford a PC or other device needed to access Wi-Fi services, but also by the fact that Wi-Fi technology was never designed to provide blanket coverage. Regulators who sanction the availability of low-cost or free wireless local networks where they had previously licensed service providers to operate a paid-for service may find themselves challenged by the latter group.

WiMAX, a wireless technology capable of delivering broadband wireless connectivity over a wide area, may prove ineffective as a competitor to established fixed and mobile broadband networks. However, it may well become the most cost-efficient approach to delivering broadband to rural areas that are too expensive to connect using wired or broadband cellular technologies. Occasionally, WiMAX may also find a secondary role providing backhaul for metropolitan Wi-Fi networks and other managed data networks.

New Tools for Communications

The communications tools most likely to become established as part of each individual’s preferred list are likely to be those that are easiest to use, offer best value and are most relevant to that individual.

The availability of a wider range of devices, networks and communications options in 2010 may encourage us to communicate more overall. Digital cameras with built-in picture messaging and e-mail; games consoles with instant messaging, laptops with embedded mobile cellular access systems and even cars capable of sending and receiving e-mail are all feasible by 2010.

The Era of the Video Call Arrives

By 2010, video calls may have finally become mainstream, enabled by more widespread fixed broadband connectivity, falling costs, improving quality of service, and the more common integration of a camera into laptop PCs and computer monitors.

The growing availability of standalone, plug-and-play video-calling devices may drive demand for fixed video calls in the home.

Video calling will go mainstream.

Video calls will be undertaken within both work and social contexts. Clearly, video is likely to be a far more effective way of conveying nonverbal communications such as body language, facial expressions and other mannerisms.

But while fixed-broadband video calls should grow in volume, they will likely still represent a minority of all calls. This will also be the case on mobile networks. Many mobile phones are likely to be cable of handling video calls by 2010, but this functionality may be little used. Quality and price of mobile video calls may remain poor relative to their fixed-line equivalent.

Have Your Machine Talk to My Machine

Steady growth in the range of devices that include some form of connectivity may catalyze growth in the volume of machine-to-machine (M2M) conversations. This could generate an industry worth over $200 billion by 2010 (compared to less than $50 billion today).

By 2010, tens of millions of vehicles may feature an integrated cellular mobile connection, allowing for applications ranging from remote maintenance to vehicle tracking.

Cars, televisions, and even groceries will be talking to computers.

Five percent of the world’s televisions may be connected, directly or indirectly, to broadband networks, allowing remote programming, maintenance and even the insertion of personalized advertising.

Radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags may have become cheap enough for their mainstream use within supply chains – allowing automated systems to interrogate stock levels, check on the status of orders and deliveries, record environmental conditions and track individual items as they move from the factory to the customer.
 

Technology Supports the Teacher

The teacher is likely to still be at the heart of the educational process in 2010. Digital whiteboards, which are likely to be gradually rolled out through 2010 and beyond, will allow the teacher to focus on interacting with the class, rather than the blackboard. Students are likely to be using personal computers more regularly in class, often connected to classroom networks that allow the teacher to monitor progress in real time. School extranets are likely to facilitate communication with parents. Teachers are likely to source teaching material, including professionally developed graphics, video and animations from online exchanges.

Students in small colleges will have more choice of specialized subjects.

An elite group of teachers, which today is only able to reach a mass market via books, lecture tours and articles, may be lecturing via videoconferencing, streamed audio and podcasts to classes of thousands by 2010. Indeed, students in the lecture theatre may represent the smallest audience.

Faster, cheaper connectivity may also allow greater access to specialist subjects in smaller teaching institutions. Such schools may not be able to justify hiring a teacher in a niche subject, but may be able to afford a share in a teacher whose class would be delivered by videoconference.

However, there is a risk that some students may consider a podcast as a substitute for, rather than a complement to, attending a lecture. As a result, lecturers and educationalists around the world will likely increasingly recognize that although technology has the potential to improve the way educational material is gathered, presented and shared, the teacher will remain the lifeblood of education – ensuring that students actively engage and interact with the learning experience.

Broadband as Prime-Time Entertainment

Households with broadband may be spending more time surfing the Internet than watching television by 2010, making Internet-related activities the most popular leisure pursuit.

Live concerts will be able to play in many venues at once.

Much of the excitement around on-demand delivery of content focuses on video, but it is audio-on-demand (AOD) that may have become most significant by 2010. Despite the rollout of higher-speed broadband networks by 2010, the sheer size of video files, along with the growing demands on bandwidth to the home in general, may make video-on-demand (VOD) technically and economically difficult to deliver on a widespread basis by 2010.

Live concerts may be able to reach audiences in the hundreds of thousands by 2010. High-speed networks could allow a concert to be relayed to a range of other locations, such as smaller concert halls or public spaces that would show the event on large screens, to televisions in the home to online retail sites.
 

Media Collections Go Online

By 2010, a bold, trusting minority may decide to have most of their media stored virtually. Access would be on-demand, from any device with a sufficiently fast connection.

Early adopters will store most of their media online.

Online collections will likely be most prevalent for media that require relatively little bandwidth to deliver immediately. Thus music, talking books and photographs may well be the most common media stored online by 2010.
 

Video Games Get Healthy

An estimated 80 million adults are forecast to be regular game players by 2010. Playing video games, however, could have evolved from being a largely sedentary activity. A growing range of games may require players to use their bodies to control their virtual player, rather than relying on buttons and joy sticks. The falling price of infrared sensors and video cameras should allow increasingly accurate capture of a player’s movements.

The video game may even become a recognized source of intellectual growth, forming the basis for educational programs, sports instruction and even personal development.

Video on Demand – Not Always via IP

The nuisance of going to the DVD store should have become a distant memory for many people – but not necessarily because of brand-new technology. By 2010, many may still be content to select their DVD online, for postal delivery the following day.

Viewer interaction -- voting, competing in contests, even shaping the plot -- will provide revenues for producers and broadcasters.

VOD via an IP link may only be an imperative for a highly time-constrained minority who demand absolute immediacy. VOD via IP may see additional demand as a means of sourcing diverse content that is not available on mainstream channels. Cricket fans resident in North America or baseball fans in Europe may rely on VOD as the only option to obtain live video coverage of their team.

Program schedulers should still have a major role to play, despite the growth of AOD, VOD and increased penetration of digital recorders that facilitate the time-shifting of broadcast content.

Viewer participation may well have become a more widespread feature in mainstream broadcast programs, as a growing minority of consumers show their willingness to pay for the privilege of control. Voting, participating in competitions and other forms of interaction – particularly where conducted over mobile networks – may become increasingly substantial sources of revenue for program makers and broadcasters. Indeed, there is likely to be a growing move to structure a wider range of programs to exploit consumers’ appetite for participation, in order to increase revenues and fund future program development.

In turn this may lead to more sophisticated ways to participate, allowing viewers not only to influence the fate of individual characters, but also to shape the plot.

User-generated content is also likely to grow in volume. The large majority of it – from blogs to home videos – may be of little interest or value. However, a gifted few will produce material with broad appeal, and a new category of search business may emerge as a result, helping consumers to avoid the morass, and get quickly to quality material.

Functionality that may emerge by 2010 includes three-dimensional (3D) viewing – without the need for special glasses. The availability of increasingly powerful processors in postproduction will enable image perspective to be altered, enabling images to appear to be in 3D.

Companies that put the biggest focus on how consumer entertainment may be maximized as a result of implementing new technology or connectivity are likely to enjoy the greatest success. Companies that are more obsessed with delivering the latest technology, with lesser regard for the user experience or the underlying economics, may not fare as well.
 

About the Author

Paul Lee is the director of research for the Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu (DTT) Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) Industry Group. This article is excerpted from the report “Eye to the Future: How TMT Advances Could Change the Way We Live in 2010.” The full report is available at http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/UK_TMT_Eyetothefuture_06.pdf.